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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.